COVID-19 early pandemic scenario in India compared to China and rest of the world: a data driven and model analysis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic is ongoing, and this is devastating. This study aimed to explore the early COVID-19 pandemic situation in Indian context compared to that of China (the primary epicenter of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic) as well as in countries outside China. Various epidemiologic parameters, by data driven analysis: basic reproduction number (R0), average reproduction number (R), effective reproduction number (Re), daily growth rate (DGR), case fatality rate (CFR) and case recovery rate (CRR), as well as model analysis: R0, R, Re, serial interval (SI), transmission rate (β) and recovery rate (γ), of COVID-19 early pandemic in India were determined, and were compared with China and rest of the world. The DGR, CRR, CFR, and SI of COVID-19 in India were 17%, 8.25%, 1.87%, and 5.76 days, respectively. The data driven estimates of R0, R and Re were 1.03, 1.73, and 1.35, respectively. The exponential and SIR model had higher estimates of R0, R and Re. The data driven as well as estimated COVID-19 cases reflected the growing nature of the epidemic in India and world excluding China, whereas the same in China revealed the involved population became infected with the disease and moved into the recovered stage. The Re values in India before and after lockdown were 1.62 and 1.37 respectively, with SI 5.52 days and 5.98 days, respectively. The current findings reflected the effectiveness of lockdowns, and therefore, for an early end of the COVID-19 pandemic, strong social distancing is important.